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Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, Institute of Market Economy of Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council and Financial Research Institute of The People's Bank of China (PBoC)

The Ninth Annual International Conference on the Chinese Economy

“China’s Real Estate Market and Implications for Economic and Financial Stability”

18 January 2018 (Thursday) - 19 January 2018 (Friday)

56/F, Two International Finance Centre, Central, Hong Kong



18 January 2018
08:30 – 09:00 Registration and Welcome Coffee
09:00 – 09:15 Welcoming Remarks
Eddie Yue, Deputy Chief Executive, Hong Kong Monetary Authority
09:15 – 10:00 Keynote Speech
Wei Li, President (Minister), Development Research Center of the State Council
10:00 – 10:30 Coffee Break
10:30 – 12:30 Policy Forum: China’s Real Estate Market: Recent Development, Policy Options and Future Perspective
Chair:
Lillian Cheung, Executive Director, Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Director, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

Speakers:
Yiping Huang, Monetary Policy Committee Member, PBoC and Professor, Peking University

Zhong Xu, Director General, Research Bureau, PBoC

Wei Wang, Director General, Institute of Market Economy, DRC

Hong Qin, Director, Policy Research Center, Ministry of HURD P.R. China

Q&A
12:30 – 13:40 Conference Luncheon (by invitation)
13:40 – 15:50 Session 1: Understanding the Real Estate Market in China
Chair:
Matthew Yiu, Senior Economist, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

Speakers:
Yongheng Deng, Provost’s Chair Professor, National University of Singapore
[The People’s Housing Market: Evaluating Risk across Chinese Housing Markets]

Larry Hu, Head of China Economics, Macquarie Capital Limited
[Supply/Demand Mismatch: The Core Issue of China’s Property Market]

Hongyu Liu, Professor, Tsinghua University
[China Housing Market Development and Policy Outlook in the New Era]

Commentator:
Anna Wong, Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Board

Q&A

15:50 – 16:20 Coffee Break
16:20 – 18:00 Session 2: China’s Real Estate Market and Its Interlinkage with the Real Economy
Chair:
Hongyi Chen, Senior Economist, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

Speakers:
Wei Xiong, Professor, Princeton University
[A Tale of Three Channels: Real Estate Boom and Firm Investment in China]

Chen Lin, Professor, The University of Hong Kong
[Housing Market, Business Creation and Entrepreneurship]

Commentator:
Mali Chivakul, Senior Economist, European Central Bank

Q&A
18:20 Conference Dinner (by invitation)
19 January 2018
8:30 - 9:00 Registration and Coffee
9:00 – 10:40 Session 3: China’s Real Estate Market and Financial Stability
Chair:
Muhong Niu, Director, Research Bureau, PBoC

Speakers:
Tao Zha, Executive Director, Center for Quantitative Economic Research (CQER) of Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
[Fundamental versus Speculative Credit Booms? Anatomy of China’s Mortgage Market]

Daofu Chen, Vice Director-General, Research Institute of Finance, DRC
[Impacts of the Financialization of China’s Real Estate Market and Policy Solution]

Commentator:
Jeff Dawson, Research Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Q&A
10:40 – 11:10 Coffee Break
11:10 – 12:50 Session 4: Housing Prices and Its Implication for Long-term Economic Growth
Chair:
Yusong Deng, Deputy Director-General, Institute of Market Economy, DRC

Speakers:
Jun Nie, Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
[China’s Real Estate Sector and the Macroeconomy: Transmission Mechanism and Risks]

Shouying Liu, Professor, Renmin University of China
[Say Goodbye to China’s Land Development Model]

Commentator:
Hunter Clark, Assistant Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Q&A
12:50 – 14:00 Conference Luncheon (by invitation)
14:00 – 16:00 Panel Discussion: Housing Prices, Economic Growth and Financial Stability: A Market View
Chair:
Sally Chen, Resident Representative, International Monetary Fund Hong Kong SAR Sub-office

Speakers:
Tao Wang, Head of Asia Economics Research, UBS Investment Bank

Helen Qiao, Head of Asia Economics Research, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Zhiwei Zhang, Chief China Economist, Deutsche Bank

Haibin Zhu, Chief China Economist, J.P. Morgan

Q&A
16:00 Closing Remarks

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