Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

Sixth Annual International Conference on the Chinese Economy

"Leverage and Financial System Efficiency and Stability: Chinese and International Experiences"

15 January 2015 (Thursday) - 16 January 2015 (Friday)

Room 5608, 56/F, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central


15 Jan 2015
8:30 - 9:00 Registration and Coffee

9:00 - 9:10 Opening Remarks

Hongyi Chen (Senior Manager, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

Morning Session Chair: Edward Chen (University of Hong Kong)

Session 1 Monetary Policy and Financial Stability

9:10 – 10:00 Betting the House
Oscar Jorda (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
Moritz Schularick* (University of Bonn)
Alan M. Taylor (University of California, Davis)

Discussant: Feng Zhu (Bank for International Settlements)
10:00 – 10:50 Asset Allocation and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Eurozone
Harald Hau* (University of Geneva and Swiss Finance Institute)
Sandy Lai (University of Hong Kong)

Discussant: James Yetman (Bank for International Settlements)
10:50 – 11:20 Coffee Break

Session 2 Corporate Leverage in China

11:20 – 12:10 Why did Corporate Leverage Increase Fast in China and Where do the Risks Lie?
Wenlang Zhang* (HKMA)
Gaofeng Han (HKMA)
Brian Ng (HKMA)
Steven Chan (HKMA)

Discussant: W. Raphael Lam (IMF)
12:10 – 13:00 Corporate Default Risks in China
Shaun K. Roache* (IMF)
Daniel Law (IMF)

Discussant: Dragon Tang (University of Hong Kong)
13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

Afternoon Session Chair: Hongyi Chen (HKIMR)

Session 3 Banking Regulation and Credit Supply

14:00 - 14:50 How Does Macroprudential Regulation Change Bank Credit Supply?
Anil K. Kashyap (University of Chicago)
Dimitrios P. Tsomocos* (University of Oxford)
Alexandros P. Vardoulakis (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

Discussant: David Cook (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
14:50 – 15:40 How Capital Regulation and Other Factors Drive the Role of Shadow Banking in Funding Short-Term Business Credit
John V. Duca* (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

Discussant: Torsten Ehlers (Bank for International Settlements)
15:40 – 16:10 Coffee Break

Session 4 China’s Credit Boom and Business Cycle

16:10 – 17:00 SOE and Chinese Real Business Cycle
Daoju Peng (Chinese University of Hong Kong)
Kang Shi* (Chinese University of Hong Kong)
Juanyi Xu (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

Discussant: Yin-Wong Cheung (City University of Hong Kong)
17:00 – 17:50 Will China’s Credit Boom End in a Bust?
Scott Davis* (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
Adrienne Mack (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
Wesley Phoa (The Capital Group Companies)
Anne Vandenabeele (The Capital Group Companies)

Discussant: Charles Yu (HKIMR)
18:30 – 20:00 Conference Dinner (By invitation only)

16 Jan 2015
8:30 – 9:00 Registration and Coffee

Morning Session Chair: Cho-Hoi Hui (HKMA)

Session 5 Banking Competition and Financial Stability

9:00 – 9:50 International Evidence on Bank Funding Profiles and Performance: Are Banks “Overbanked”?
Jose A. Lopez (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
Mark M. Spiegel* (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

Discussant: Eric Wong (HKMA)
9:50 – 10:40 Collateral, Market Structure and Relationship Lending — Identification through IPO
Bing Xu (Unviersity of Carlos III in Madrid)
Honglin Wang* (HKIMR)
Adrian Van Rixtel (Bank for International Settlements)

Discussant: Yue Ma (City University of Hong Kong)
10:40 – 11:10 Coffee Break

11:10 – 12:00 Banking Competition and Stability: The Role of Leverage
Xavier Freixas (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
Kebin Ma* (The University of Warwick)

Discussant: Frank Song (The University of Hong Kong)
12:00 – 13:00 Sandwich Lunch

- End of Conference -

* : presenter

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